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The more observant among you might have already noticed that when using one-tap capture for astrals you don't receive any points for misfortunes. I reported this as a bug months ago and the response I got was "this is intended". Okay, fair enough. If that was the only difference between one-tap and manual though then I'd happily stick with one-tap because from my tests that only amounts to spending 3% more gold for the same amount of xp. What I've found though is that not only do you miss points for misfortunes, but you actually get lower quality astrals when using one-tap, so less blues and more greens and greys.
Now that we only have one world boss attempt per day, it's even more important to be making the most of your gold, so for those who weren't aware just how bad one-tap is I'm telling you now, you'll use 25% more gold than doing it manually.
I synthesise blue and up and sell greys and greens. These are the collective results:
The last column gives the gold per xp after spending points on energines/energy stars. Ignore the Grand Total row, it's meaningless in this case. I could have had a larger sample size for one-tap, but I'd already noticed before that it was costing me about 450-500gp per xp before I decided to actually recorded it properly. For anyone who can't see the image:
One-tap: 457.8 gold per xp
Manual: 370.1 gold per xp
That makes one-tap 23.7% more expensive in this sample.
Anyways, my original intention when I started collecting data for manual capture wasn't this. In fact I wanted to find the drop rate of different astrals at different levels and the probability of progressing onto the next light. It was quite slow to collect this information, so I only have data on 1375 astral captures, but it's enough to reveal a pattern. Here's my raw data:
The rows with "one-tap" show what the results would be if one-tap only omitted points for misfortunes, but as I've now found out, is not true. I always moved onto the next light when it lit up in order to see the probability of progressing on to the next one. I'm going to make the assumption that the numbers used to determine the chances will be "nice", so what these results reveal is that you have the following chance of progressing from the previous light to:
Level 2: 1/3
Level 3: 1/3
Level 4: 1/3
Level 5: 1/4
What this results in is there being a 1 in 108 chance to reach the final light, starting from the beginning.
Next observation. Only the first two lights can give misfortunes, and the last two lights always give at least a blue. Once I noticed this I adjusted my input method by deleting the redundant buttons so that my input panel looked like this:
I've never seen a red come from anything other than the last light in all my time doing astrals so just took it to be safe to assume that nothing else can give a red. Anyway, here are the probabilities that I've gotten so far for each colour astral at each level.
Level 1: Misfortune - 45.6% Green - 54.4%
Level 2: Misfortune - 26.9% Green - 30.2% Blue - 42.9%
Level 3: Green - 12.7% Blue - 75.5% Purple - 11.8%
Level 4: Blue - 73.5% Purple - 23.5% Orange - 2.9%
Level 5: Blue - 55.6% Purple - 44.4%
Up to level 3, I think this amount of data is enough to make some assumptions (I don't feel like doing any real statistics on this). I'd say that misfortunes have a 45% chance and greens have a 55% chance at level 1. Not sure yet about level 2, but I think it's clear that at level 3, greens and purples both have a 12.5% chance while blues make up the other 75%. I'd probably also go out on a limb and say that level 4 gives 75% blue, but don't have enough information to say anything about the other types of astrals.
Now that we only have one world boss attempt per day, it's even more important to be making the most of your gold, so for those who weren't aware just how bad one-tap is I'm telling you now, you'll use 25% more gold than doing it manually.
I synthesise blue and up and sell greys and greens. These are the collective results:
The last column gives the gold per xp after spending points on energines/energy stars. Ignore the Grand Total row, it's meaningless in this case. I could have had a larger sample size for one-tap, but I'd already noticed before that it was costing me about 450-500gp per xp before I decided to actually recorded it properly. For anyone who can't see the image:
One-tap: 457.8 gold per xp
Manual: 370.1 gold per xp
That makes one-tap 23.7% more expensive in this sample.
Anyways, my original intention when I started collecting data for manual capture wasn't this. In fact I wanted to find the drop rate of different astrals at different levels and the probability of progressing onto the next light. It was quite slow to collect this information, so I only have data on 1375 astral captures, but it's enough to reveal a pattern. Here's my raw data:
The rows with "one-tap" show what the results would be if one-tap only omitted points for misfortunes, but as I've now found out, is not true. I always moved onto the next light when it lit up in order to see the probability of progressing on to the next one. I'm going to make the assumption that the numbers used to determine the chances will be "nice", so what these results reveal is that you have the following chance of progressing from the previous light to:
Level 2: 1/3
Level 3: 1/3
Level 4: 1/3
Level 5: 1/4
What this results in is there being a 1 in 108 chance to reach the final light, starting from the beginning.
Next observation. Only the first two lights can give misfortunes, and the last two lights always give at least a blue. Once I noticed this I adjusted my input method by deleting the redundant buttons so that my input panel looked like this:
I've never seen a red come from anything other than the last light in all my time doing astrals so just took it to be safe to assume that nothing else can give a red. Anyway, here are the probabilities that I've gotten so far for each colour astral at each level.
Level 1: Misfortune - 45.6% Green - 54.4%
Level 2: Misfortune - 26.9% Green - 30.2% Blue - 42.9%
Level 3: Green - 12.7% Blue - 75.5% Purple - 11.8%
Level 4: Blue - 73.5% Purple - 23.5% Orange - 2.9%
Level 5: Blue - 55.6% Purple - 44.4%
Up to level 3, I think this amount of data is enough to make some assumptions (I don't feel like doing any real statistics on this). I'd say that misfortunes have a 45% chance and greens have a 55% chance at level 1. Not sure yet about level 2, but I think it's clear that at level 3, greens and purples both have a 12.5% chance while blues make up the other 75%. I'd probably also go out on a limb and say that level 4 gives 75% blue, but don't have enough information to say anything about the other types of astrals.
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