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Lunette Wheel

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  • #16
    Originally posted by tempicek View Post
    They change the drop rates all the time, no two wheels are the same. That's because they change the prizes within it too, and the jackpot prize, and sometimes the price for a spin too, so the drop rates have to match all that. It's sneaky, but what can you do? Best defense is to share info within alli, or within the world if you feel like it. I usually run the tests with my gems and tell others if anything's worth it (side note: 9 out of 10 times it is not worth it, but one has to try to find that 1 out of 10 :/).
    I dont think there are world specific drop rates. I believe it is based on individual players and how they play. Basically Kabam controls everything in the game including what you win and if you win it. They would like you to think there is a rate of chance or that things are random but that would be to easy to figure out, and once you did you could buy the amount needed to win what you wanted. You could simply find out the specific drop rate by setting up a system within your alliance to buy so many of whatever and then crunch the numbers. So the plain simple fact is that there is no random winning nor are their drop rates for certain prizes. Kabam decides if your going to win something period!

    Comment

    • #17
      Originally posted by Kernel_Panic View Post
      I dont think there are world specific drop rates. I believe it is based on individual players and how they play. Basically Kabam controls everything in the game including what you win and if you win it. They would like you to think there is a rate of chance or that things are random but that would be to easy to figure out, and once you did you could buy the amount needed to win what you wanted. You could simply find out the specific drop rate by setting up a system within your alliance to buy so many of whatever and then crunch the numbers. So the plain simple fact is that there is no random winning nor are their drop rates for certain prizes. Kabam decides if your going to win something period!
      This is wrong. They don't code the chests to diff people to win stuff. Every chest has the same odds every chest has the same items for every single player. If you understand the basic laws of probability you can have a 50% drop rate chance and go 10 in a row not winning. Each chest is a diff event so buying 20 chests dose not increase your base chance to win a item your just playing the game 20
      More times but, they odds remain the same.

      Comment

      • #18
        Originally posted by Canadiank View Post
        This is wrong. They don't code the chests to diff people to win stuff. Every chest has the same odds every chest has the same items for every single player. If you understand the basic laws of probability you can have a 50% drop rate chance and go 10 in a row not winning. Each chest is a diff event so buying 20 chests dose not increase your base chance to win a item your just playing the game 20
        More times but, they odds remain the same.
        Are you crazy Canadiank? The basic laws of probabilty- so russion rulette-you have 6 chambers on a revolver with 1 bullet in one so there for you have a 1 in 6 chance of shooting yourself, you fire once and no bullet, guess what now there is a one in 5 chance you shoot yourself as there is 5 chambers left and one of them has the bullet so actually if kabam told is that for every 1000 chests there is a mega prize then obviously this would increase the probabilty of winning on the next attempt!! This is basic probability!!! Now I understand what you say regarding 1 in 2 probability and possibly missing 10 times in a row but this is highly unlikely but still possible. The problem with kabam is they just don't give us any information so more often than not people feel let down as they have higher expectations due to false advertising and manipulative marketing!

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        • #19
          Originally posted by Bredleeds View Post
          Are you crazy Canadiank? The basic laws of probabilty- so russion rulette-you have 6 chambers on a revolver with 1 bullet in one so there for you have a 1 in 6 chance of shooting yourself, you fire once and no bullet, guess what now there is a one in 5 chance you shoot yourself as there is 5 chambers left and one of them has the bullet so actually if kabam told is that for every 1000 chests there is a mega prize then obviously this would increase the probabilty of winning on the next attempt!! This is basic probability!!! Now I understand what you say regarding 1 in 2 probability and possibly missing 10 times in a row but this is highly unlikely but still possible. The problem with kabam is they just don't give us any information so more often than not people feel let down as they have higher expectations due to false advertising and manipulative marketing!
          That's not correct cause in your scenario there is only 6 maximum events and each time a choice is removed increasing the chance of the even bullet hitting you. That's not what I getting at anyway what I saying is there is no favourites each person has the exact same chance to win a prize per chest. The gemmers just buy more chests.

          Comment

          • #20
            Originally posted by Kernel_Panic View Post
            I dont think there are world specific drop rates. I believe it is based on individual players and how they play. Basically Kabam controls everything in the game including what you win and if you win it. They would like you to think there is a rate of chance or that things are random but that would be to easy to figure out, and once you did you could buy the amount needed to win what you wanted. You could simply find out the specific drop rate by setting up a system within your alliance to buy so many of whatever and then crunch the numbers. So the plain simple fact is that there is no random winning nor are their drop rates for certain prizes. Kabam decides if your going to win something period!
            I agree with Canadian - there is no reason to think the system is skewed towards specific individuals. Also i wasn't suggesting world-specific drop rates (although there are world-specific prizes, because worlds do differ in age, feature sets and progress), I was just saying that every wheel is different (in between events).

            Now, w.r.t what you are suggesting - alliance buying chests and crunching the numbers - that's a good thing to do, but you are suggesting it for the wrong reasons. People should be putting their numbers together so that they have more data to build statistics and make well-informed decisions on what to buy and where to spend. But you seem to be thinking that this is a way how to break the system, which it definitely is not - it would just give you better value for your money in average, but even knowing what the odds are for certain prize, you still have to buy many to get a decent chance to actually get the prize... If you knew you had a 0.01% chance to get a billion might from the Billion Might Chest, and you bought 10,000 of these chests, you'd have 63% to actually find 1b might in at least one of them. Now, that knowledge would have been useful to have, but you would still make Kabam happy if you bought those chests and won multiple times. The reason they don't give us the chances isn't that you could break the system with that knowledge, but mostly because you would not feel motivated if you knew your chances are so slim.

            Comment

            • #21
              Originally posted by Bredleeds View Post
              Are you crazy Canadiank? The basic laws of probabilty- so russion rulette-you have 6 chambers on a revolver with 1 bullet in one so there for you have a 1 in 6 chance of shooting yourself, you fire once and no bullet, guess what now there is a one in 5 chance you shoot yourself as there is 5 chambers left and one of them has the bullet so actually if kabam told is that for every 1000 chests there is a mega prize then obviously this would increase the probabilty of winning on the next attempt!! This is basic probability!!! Now I understand what you say regarding 1 in 2 probability and possibly missing 10 times in a row but this is highly unlikely but still possible. The problem with kabam is they just don't give us any information so more often than not people feel let down as they have higher expectations due to false advertising and manipulative marketing!
              Your example is true only if you don't re-spin the chamber after a misfire. But if you re-spin the chamber after the misfire, your odds will be back at 1 in 6. This is the case with the any chest, lunette wheel, and merlin madness. A failed chest, lunette wheel, or merlin madness (failed = not getting what you want) does not eliminate that try from your next attempt. Your next attempt will always reset the probability (like re-spinning the chamber). THAT is the basic law of probability.

              And they did change the odds on Merlin's Token Grab Bag. Damn you Kabam!

              Comment

              • #22
                I spent 1600 gems on the wheel. Got 4 keys in the first 300 gems. After all 1600 gems were gone I never got that 5th key for the grand prize. Rigged...not random. Your liars if you claim otherwise.

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