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Stage 1 Battle Mechanic Test Results

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  • Stage 1 Battle Mechanic Test Results

    For all tests the following stats are applicable:

    Attacker Stats
    Knight: 197
    Poison Edge: 10
    Healing Potion: 10
    Blood Lust/Frenzy: OFF
    Bark/Stonseskin: OFF

    Defender Stats (Level 9 Pict Camp)
    Knight: 0 (Assumption)
    Poison Edge: 9
    Healing Potion: 9
    Blood Lust/Frenzy: OFF (Assumption)
    Bark/Stoneskin: OFF

    OVERVIEW
    The idea of these simulations is to gather enough data to make progress in determining an accurate model of the battle mechanic. No single formula is ever going to accurately capture the battle mechanisms. Instead a series of formulas will most likely be formed over time in order to try and best represent the battle mechanism. A level 9 pict camp was chosen as it contains only Artillery troop types. This allows only other Artillery troop types to be sent as there should be no bonus or penalty when Artillery troop types fight each other. Each simulation is run five times in order to determine a reasonably accurate average.

    ATTACKER RIDUCOULSY OUTNUMBERED
    To simulate attacking a player defending with 25.6 million might 100 archers were sent against a level 9 pict camp which had 1000 archers, 600 ballistae and 500 catapults. Multiplying everything by 1000 results in simulating 100k archers being sent against a player defending with a huge army. In pure troop numbers the attacker is outnumbered 21 to 1 whilst in terms of might they are out gunned by 64 to 1.

    The attacker lost all troops on each attack whilst an average of 81.8 troops were lost on each attack by the defender. There was a positive deviation of 3.8% and a negative deviation of 3.4%.

    ATTACKER OUTNUMBERED
    To simulate attacking a player defending with 2.56 million might 1000 archers were sent against a level 9 pict camp which had 1000 archers, 600 ballistae and 500 catapults. Multiplying everything by 100 results in simulating 100k archers being sent against a player defending with a large army. In pure troop numbers the attacker is outnumbered 2.1 to 1 whilst in terms of might they are out gunned by 6.4 to 1.

    The attacker lost all troops on each attack whilst an average of 822.4 troops were lost on each attack by the defender. There was a positive deviation of 2.0% and a negative deviation of 2.4%.

    DEFENDER OUTNUMBERED
    To simulate attacking a player defending with 256k might 10000 archers were sent against a level 9 pict camp which had 1000 archers, 600 ballistae and 500 catapults. Multiplying everything by 10 results in simulating 100k archers being sent against a player defending with a medium army. In pure troop numbers the defender is outnumbered 4.8 to 1 whilst in terms of might they are out gunned by 1.6 to 1.

    The defender lost all troops on each attack whilst an average of 1319.8 troops were lost on each attack by the attacker. There was a positive deviation of 3.0% and a negative deviation of 2.4%.

    DEFENDER RIDUCOULSY OUTNUMBERED
    To simulate attacking a player defending with 25.6k might 100000 archers were sent against a level 9 pict camp which had 1000 archers, 600 ballistae and 500 catapults. Multiplying everything by 1 results in simulating 100k archers being sent against a player defending with a small army. In pure troop numbers the defender is outnumbered 48 to 1 whilst in terms of might they are out gunned by 16 to 1.

    The defender lost all troops on each attack whilst an average of 1310.2 troops were lost on each attack by the attacker. There was a positive deviation of 2.7% and a negative deviation of 1.6%.

    ASSUMPTIONS
    It is assumed that might is not a true indicator of troop strength. This seems to be supported by the large discrepencies seen in past battles. In game the various Tiers are given a star value to indicate their attack and life. Those star values have been converted into numerical values and a modifier applied based upon several factors. The following formula has been used to calculate the Modifier:

    Code:
    Modifier = 1 + (Knight / 200) + (Research / 20) + (Item / 5)
    Where:
    • Knight: The level of Knight used in the the attack.
    • Research: The level of Research, ie Poison Edge for attack modifier and Healing Potion for life modifier.
    • Item: Whether or not Item buffs were uses, ie Blood Lust/Frenzy for attack modifier ad Bark/Stoneskin for life modifier. Where 1 indicates used and 0 indicates not used.


    By placing in the correct values the Attack Modifer and Life Modifer for both the attacker and defender can be determined. Therefore the following modifiers will need to be calculated:

    1. Winner Attack Modifier
    2. Winner Life Modifier
    3. Loser Attack Modifier
    4. Loser Life Modifier



    LIMITATIONS
    All attacks consisted of only Tier 1 troops. This limits any conclusions to single Tier attacks only. Test data for multi-tiered attacks will have to be gathered to expand on battle mechanic model.

    CONCLUSION
    The very first thing to note is there is definitely a random factor of between 1.6% and 3.8% involved. It is not a huge deviation and for the purposes of determining the battle mechanic model it can be ignored. As long as calculated values fall within the deviation then they can be considered as accurate.

    Another consistant observation is the deviation between calculated results and expected results when one side is considerably outnumbered. From the above tests it was shown that approximately a 50% bonus was applied to the winner. That is the winner had their losses reduced by 50%. Additional tests were run to confirm or deny this and a new pattern emerged. Attacks were performed at a range of percentages above the calculated strength of the defender. What emerged was an inverse curve relationship between the bonus applied and the strength of the army sent in comparison to the defender. The greater the difference the greater the bonus but it seemed to be maxed out at around 50%. The following formula was extropalated from the data gathered:

    Code:
    Winners Bonus = 5 * SQRT(Difference)
    Where:
    • Winners Bonus: The bonus applied to the winner, to determine actual troop losses, in percentage.
    • Difference: The percentage by which the winner overpowers the loser. ie Difference = ((Winners Attack / Losers Attack ) * 100) - 100


    Note:
    1. Winners Bonus has a ceiling of 50%


    The Winners Bonus formula is by no means perfect but is proving to be relatively consistent with the data gathered. Occassionaly a result will appear that is outside of the expected Random Deviation. That would suggest one of the following possibilities:

    1. The Winners Bonus formula is wrong
    2. The Random Deviation is greater than expected
    3. The method of calculating Actual Strength is wrong
    4. Some other unknown factor is having an effect


    An initial formula can be concluded from the test data. It will need to be updated as more data is gathered but could be considered as a general rule of thumb for now.

    Code:
    Winners Losses = Losers Attack / Winners Life Modifier - ((Losers Attack / Winners Life Modifier) * (Winners Bonus / 100))
    A great many more simulations are needed to start drawing an accurate conclusion. This is just the first in many many steps. Input from others is greatly appreciated but please give detailed results otherwise the data is useless.

  • #2
    ARGH O.O I had an incorrect number in my spreadsheet. That has stuffed everything up. The general concepts should be ok but some of the figures, especially to do with Winners Bonus, are going to be wrong. I'll go over it all again and post with an amendment.

    Comment


    • #3
      For all tests the following stats are applicable:

      Attacker Stats
      Knight: 198
      Poison Edge: 10
      Healing Potion: 10
      Blood Lust/Frenzy: OFF
      Bark/Stonseskin: OFF

      Defender Stats
      Knight: 0 (ie No Knight assigned to Marshal) or 59 (as specified)
      Poison Edge: 9
      Healing Potion: 9
      Blood Lust/Frenzy: OFF
      Bark/Stoneskin: OFF

      OVERVIEW
      In the previous test a deviation of approximately +/-3% was shown in the amount of troops lost during an attack. A number of assumptions were made about how Pict Camps worked. The following tests are designed to prove whether the assumptions made about Pict Camps was correct and to confirm or deny the random nature of troop loss during attacks. Each simulation is run five times in order to determine a reasonably accurate average.

      DEFENDER WITH NO KNIGHT
      To simulate attacking a player with no Knight set to the Marshal position and defending with 25.6 million might 100 archers were sent against another player who had 1000 archers, 600 ballistae and 500 catapults. Multiplying everything by 1000 results in simulating 100k archers being sent against a player defending with a huge army. In pure troop numbers the attacker is outnumbered 21 to 1 whilst in terms of might they are out gunned by 64 to 1.

      The attacker lost all troops on each attack whilst an average of 104.2 troops were lost on each attack by the defender. There was a positive deviation of 0.8% and a negative deviation of 1.2%.

      DEFENDER WITH KNIGHT
      To simulate attacking a player with a level 59 Knight set to the Marshal position and defending with 25.6 million might 100 archers were sent against another player who had 1000 archers, 600 ballistae and 500 catapults. Multiplying everything by 1000 results in simulating 100k archers being sent against a player defending with a huge army. In pure troop numbers the attacker is outnumbered 21 to 1 whilst in terms of might they are out gunned by 64 to 1.

      The attacker lost all troops on each attack whilst an average of 80.6 troops were lost on each attack by the defender. There was a positive deviation of 0.5% and a negative deviation of 0.8%.

      CONCLUSION
      The test data indicates that there is a much smaller deviation in troop loss than has been previously seen. In terms of actual numbers the deviation was +/-1 which is insignificant. I suspect the percentage is only as high as it is due to the small number of troops involved. Tests with larger amounts of troops will need to be done to see if the percentage deviation is consistant. What can be concluded though is that a Pict Camp shows a much greater range of deviation during attacks than a player does.

      Comparing the troop loss with previous results clearly shows one the assumptions about Pict Camps was wrong. It was assumed that Pict Camps did not have a Knight set to the Marshal position. However the losses taken by a player without a Knight set tot he Marshal position where considerably greater. When the player assigned a level 59 Knight to the Marshal position the the losses were more consistant with what was seen with a Pict Camp. This seems to prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that Pict Camps do indeed have Knights set to the Marshal position

      Combining those two new pieces of information together seem to indicate that the Pict Camp has a random Knight set to the Marshal position. What this range is and how it is selected will need to be determined. Of course there may also be some other completely unknown factor causing the larger deviation in troop loss with Pict Camps.

      FUTURE
      All simulations from this point will be done player against player in order to remove as many unknowns as possible. Unfortunately the new data provided by player versus player tests does not support the existing formula. Therefore a new formula based on these results will need to be determined. Once that is done further tests will be performed to try and confirm the accuracy of the formula.

      Comment


      • #4
        An initial test was done where the attacking and defending armies should of been of equal strength (based on the Modifier formula previously described). The results showed the attacker fairing much better than expected. The Knight level and research were mismatched however. This could suggest an error in the Modifier formula or the attacker receives a bonus. So before any other test data is gathered an new range of tests need to be done. I will be using two players with the same level knight, same level research and same quantity of troops. They will attack each others cities and also each other plains (whilst reinforced). This should then show the following:

        • Whether an attacker receives a bonus or not
        • Whether walls play any significant part in the battle mechanic


        Hopefully after those tests I can be fairly confident in what the Modifier formula truly is. I'll run those tests later today and post the results shortly afterwards.

        Comment


        • #5
          In case you're wondering if anyone is carefully reading...I am
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          Comment


          • #6
            Originally posted by Cooderlove View Post
            In case you're wondering if anyone is carefully reading...I am
            Oh good I was beginning to think I was talking to myself lol

            Comment


            • #7
              Good stuff. Thanks!

              Comment


              • #8
                I agree with the fact that there is a random amount for losses of a few percent and also that there is a threshold over which additional winning troops becomes redundant

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Unregistered View Post
                  I agree with the fact that there is a random amount for losses of a few percent and also that there is a threshold over which additional winning troops becomes redundant
                  Thanks for verifying you are seeing the same behaviour. Helps me be sure I am on the right track

                  Unfortunately it will be a couple days before I can do more testing. I've got four accounts and I had thought two of them were Level 9 across the board. My GF has been playing with one of those accounts and it is now a mix of Level 9 and 10. So I have to finish upgrading that one to Level 10 across the board to match my main account. I don't have the gems to speed it up so have to take the slow route

                  Unless of course there is player on Kay2 who is either Level 9 or 10 across the board and is willing to run a few dozen tests with me. If there is drop me a line here or in game under the name Runey (Chancellor of Honour Bound).

                  PS: Thanks Riccardo for making this a sticky

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by runey71 View Post
                    Thanks for verifying you are seeing the same behaviour. Helps me be sure I am on the right track

                    Unfortunately it will be a couple days before I can do more testing. I've got four accounts and I had thought two of them were Level 9 across the board. My GF has been playing with one of those accounts and it is now a mix of Level 9 and 10. So I have to finish upgrading that one to Level 10 across the board to match my main account. I don't have the gems to speed it up so have to take the slow route

                    Unless of course there is player on Kay2 who is either Level 9 or 10 across the board and is willing to run a few dozen tests with me. If there is drop me a line here or in game under the name Runey (Chancellor of Honour Bound).

                    PS: Thanks Riccardo for making this a sticky
                    Oh my god. My friend i have never had such a headache from reading one of your posts. I had my dictionary out to understand some of the meaning you placed. I read though it but alas i am still confused, you need to have battle statistics for dummys version lol. For this is a great thread but not everyone will be able to understand it. I play it all the time and i only understood about 1/2 of it. But again it is a superb thread im sure it will help many people. As always yours posts are the best i see.
                    Aquagems

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Genuine31 View Post
                      Oh my god. My friend i have never had such a headache from reading one of your posts. I had my dictionary out to understand some of the meaning you placed. I read though it but alas i am still confused, you need to have battle statistics for dummys version lol. For this is a great thread but not everyone will be able to understand it. I play it all the time and i only understood about 1/2 of it. But again it is a superb thread im sure it will help many people. As always yours posts are the best i see.
                      LOL This thread isn't really aimed at helping the average player understand the Battle Mechanics. As I confirm how it works I am writing a separate guide that just focuses on the final result rather than how I got there. What I'm putting up here is more a journal of how testing was done to figure out the Battle Mechanic. That way if anyone disagrees with my final result they have all my notes to look at to see where the error occurred. Also it allows people to comment on whether they are seeing the same results as I am.

                      I'll also start making spreadsheets available for anyone who wants to help run tests. I'm simplifying one right now for that purpose.

                      There are three main areas that need investigation:

                      1) Determining an accurate attack and life modifier for both attacker and defender
                      2) Extrapolating the curve used to determine the winners loss reduction modifier
                      3) Determining the modifier used when troops are either strong or weak against another troop type
                      4) Determining the order in which troops hit (I have a theory on that but its one of the last things to test)

                      Once I am happy with those four pieces of information then the rest of it should fall into place very quickly. I've done this for other games in the past. It usually takes a few thousand tests to put it all together. Thegame itself is boring now so doing this kind of thing keeps me from quitting

                      PS: If anyone doubted I was a geek before this then heres the proof LOL

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by runey71 View Post
                        LOL This thread isn't really aimed at helping the average player understand the Battle Mechanics. As I confirm how it works I am writing a separate guide that just focuses on the final result rather than how I got there. What I'm putting up here is more a journal of how testing was done to figure out the Battle Mechanic. That way if anyone disagrees with my final result they have all my notes to look at to see where the error occurred. Also it allows people to comment on whether they are seeing the same results as I am.

                        I'll also start making spreadsheets available for anyone who wants to help run tests. I'm simplifying one right now for that purpose.

                        There are three main areas that need investigation:

                        1) Determining an accurate attack and life modifier for both attacker and defender
                        2) Extrapolating the curve used to determine the winners loss reduction modifier
                        3) Determining the modifier used when troops are either strong or weak against another troop type
                        4) Determining the order in which troops hit (I have a theory on that but its one of the last things to test)

                        Once I am happy with those four pieces of information then the rest of it should fall into place very quickly. I've done this for other games in the past. It usually takes a few thousand tests to put it all together. Thegame itself is boring now so doing this kind of thing keeps me from quitting

                        PS: If anyone doubted I was a geek before this then heres the proof LOL
                        Lmao, sounds busy you should try to do what my world is about to do. We are about to have a world war, in gc today the message about world vs world got a idea running. Why not have in inner world war? The top alliance has been top for two long so this is what we're doing. That is if the top alliance agrees to this war. Is Rank 1 alliance and his allies Vs. As many participant allies i can gather. I will be the cordinator of every alliance attacking the tops. We will try to have this war as fair as possible. Though that will be extremely difficult, but basically it will run like this. Both sides will name the paricipants who will be in the war. Each side then sets to hostile, this way both sides know who to attack. Im sure it wont run that smoothly but what the heck a world war? We debated that conversation in gc for about two hours. Me arguing why we should along with my friend and them just stating that it would be a waste of time that they would win and still be top ranks. I say who cares the first world war. No world to my knowledge has ever attempted that. So i am now waiting for the alliacne to give me their final answer and if they agree. I will then have to begin corrdinating tens of alliances to take them on. Probably going to take me 3-5 days to finish all set ups lol.
                        Aquagems

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          wow

                          thanks dude. this is amazing information. I am waiting for ur next results but I don't understand one point.
                          From ur results, there is no bonus from difference between attacker and defender.
                          e.g. 100 archers causes 82 troops loss and 1000 archers causes 820 troops loss.
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                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by kaladen View Post
                            thanks dude. this is amazing information. I am waiting for ur next results but I don't understand one point.
                            From ur results, there is no bonus from difference between attacker and defender.
                            e.g. 100 archers causes 82 troops loss and 1000 archers causes 820 troops loss.
                            That's the next thing I need to test As soon as I get my other account upgraded to the same as my main account I can do further testing and figure out if there are any bonuses for the attacker or defender. Probably will be able to run those tests over the weekend.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              i've got few ideas, that we should test to define deviations caused by different factors.

                              We need "clear" accounts on two different devices, for PvP simulation.
                              To perform simulations, I propose to start with fighting between accounts using the same type (millitia vs millitia, archers vs archers) and same Tier units. There shouldn't poisoned edge or healing potions, and no buffs, the Knights should be 0 lvl.
                              Preferably to fight on captured Wildreness lvl1, because city have deffensive effects

                              When it will be a sufficient amount of tests results to understand the basic formula for the interaction between units and mixed units, we can begin to change the variables (such as a researches) to evaluate their impact
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