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Chivalrous mini game!

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  • #61
    Kabam still not reacting. They admit that they scammed us..

    Here are my thoughts about it:

    Lets not think about the rounds where no knights appear, just focus on the rounds where atleast 1 knight appear:

    If there are 3 chests and u choose one of it, there is a 33,3x% chance to guess it right.
    I wrote a simple program which imitates the game. The program returned a number between 0-2 for x,y,z. (x=0 y=1 z=2)

    Here are the average results for 10k and 1k ppl playing the game with 10k gems each:

    10000x100 guesses imitated -> x=33.35 y=33.43 z=33.23
    1000x100 guesses imitated -> x=33.12 y=33.51 z=33.37

    Now someone will say, yea of course u get it 33.x times correct with so many guesses because it compensates at that rate.
    Ok then, lets look at the non "average" guesses.

    100 guesses imitated -> x=33 y= 28 z=39
    100 guesses imitated -> x=35 y= 41 z=24
    100 guesses imitated -> x=34 y= 34 z=32
    100 guesses imitated -> x=30 y= 26 z=44
    100 guesses imitated -> x=36 y= 32 z=32
    100 guesses imitated -> x=43 y= 31 z=26
    100 guesses imitated -> x=38 y= 35 z=27
    100 guesses imitated -> x=33 y= 27 z=40
    100 guesses imitated -> x=26 y= 38 z=36
    100 guesses imitated -> x=37 y= 29 z=34

    Ofc the developers would be stupid if they would choose that kind of algorithm, because everyone would get like 25+ knights if they spend 10k gems.
    Me and everyone else would say that is way too much.

    The problem here, which still many people dont want to understand is, that its a different thing if u choose between 3 chests that have atleast 1 knight which makes a 33.3x% to guess it right and if u choose between 15 items/cards to get a knight.

    Lets see the results for guesses between 15 items/cards:

    10000x100 guesses -> a:6.6252 b:6.6368 c:6.6721 d:6.6828 e:6.7042 f:6.6909 g:6.671 h:6.6352 i:6.683 j:6.6243 k:6.6669 l:6.6835 m:6.6501 n:6.7081 o:6.6659

    100 guesses -> a:10.0 b:5.0 c:6.0 d:7.0 e:12.0 f:8.0 g:6.0 h:6.0 i:7.0 j:5.0 k:4.0 l:8.0 m:9.0 n:5.0 o:2.0

    What wee see is that "o" is the one with bad luck. While the other letters have way more, o has only 2 correct guesses.
    I still think 2 correct guesses on a knight card with 100 trys is fair.
    Buuuuuuuuuuutt, its a different thing if u choose from 15 items/cards which makes a 6,67%*4 chance to get a knight (since there are 4. Well some of you guys said 1 is missing? make it even worse than it already is...) and if u choose between 3 chests which are containing atleast one and sometimes both other chests contain one knight.

    What im trying to say is: Even if there are 100 different items to choose from, if i choose between 3 chests which contains "atleast" 1 knight, it means that i have a 33.3x% chance to be correct.

    In my case, it happen around 60% of the 60 trys, that atleast one knight appeard in one of the other chests (around 5+ times even 2 knights appeard), it will mean that i had to get some sort of this results: (keep in mind that 33.3x% is and will be 33.3x% no matter what)

    60% of 60 trys = 36x knight appearance:
    36 guesses imitated -> a:12.0 b:12.6 c:11.4
    36 guesses imitated -> a:11.4 b:15.0 c:9.6
    36 guesses imitated -> a:12.0 b:10.2 c:13.8
    36 guesses imitated -> a:16.8 b:7.8 c:11.4
    36 guesses imitated -> a:13.2 b:10.2 c:12.6

    Since i and many others did stick to one chest 40+ times, but did not or only got 1 knight, there is only 1 reason that we didnt got them. The minigame is programed to scam us. Simple as that. The algorithm is putting the knights after u choosed a chest into one of the others. Of course there are differences between program languages and u can write youre own random algorithm, but if u stick to one chest every single time with a chance of 33.3x% to be correct, u cant miss it!. Its not possible. Even if the algorithm is choosing between 15 items while u choose a chest, if atleast one knight appear in one of the 3 chests its still 33.3x% to be correct, dont u guys get it?

    Aaron i want an explanation from u!


    • #62
      they will say, sorry we cannot share drop rates or game mechanics.

      I used to do the one chest pick thing but have had more luck with just being super random with my choosings. I did not do this chest but my last to mini-games I usually snagged at least 1 6*.

      to date my 6* catches from mini-games

      King's Guard x2
      Kel earthbringer x1
      Treehound x1

      idk, i consider myself pretty lucky in that game. but I agree with you the odds are not in our favor.


      • #63
        Card that u want is NOT necessarily in one of three chests,so all your speculations about probability are false. You don't have 33% to get featured card. Drop rates are similar to rates you have in summoning

        Kabam said few times rates are higher but based on recent summons result I highly doubt rates are any different from regular SS


        • #64
          Originally posted by Lavep View Post
          Card that u want is NOT necessarily in one of three chests,so all your speculations about probability are false. You don't have 33% to get featured card. Drop rates are similar to rates you have in summoning

          Kabam said few times rates are higher but based on recent summons result I highly doubt rates are any different from regular SS
          Dont think hes that false, did u really read everything what he wrote? he didnt said u have a 33,3% chance everytime u play, he said if "atleast" (<-- thats the keyword) 1 knight is in one of the 3 chests it must be logicaly a 33,3x% chance to guess it right, its simple math.... even if the algorithm chooses between many different items... Its similiar to choose from 2 hands, if i tell u to choose between my both hands, if one of my hand has the card, will u say its x% or its 50% to guess it right? I dont say everytime one of my hand has the card, i say "if" it has it... get it?

          So read everything before u write its false or smth...


          • #65
            It doesn't mean you're close to get knights if one or two knights just appeared after you touched chest.
            It just like advertising method to make ppl believe there are Knights in mini game and to make ppl keep trying to get that knights.

            Believe me it doesn't matter which chest you opened the result will be same...


            • #66
              "Nice" algorithm.

              But in my opinion mini-game is implemented in 3 ways only.
              1 - Random on click.

              There are 3 chests, when you click one it'll summon something, could be a card or an item, then the game summons 2 more itens and shows for the other crates.
              This case a random "buff" could be given to one of the 3 chest and this buff could guarantee a card summon. (only supposition)

              2 - Random created on display

              Each time the game creates 3 chests to display they put rewards on each and save it on the back-end, then the rewards are already there, the game already "knows" what is where.
              This method could be a problem only if your infrastructure / servers sux, because it would save too much info on the back-end, most unecessary, any people who enters the mini-game would create a record, even if they don't open the chests, but anyway, im sure database space isnt a problem to Kabam infrastructure, or devs in this game.

              3 - FIFO list.

              Works +- as the item 2. The game have saved a list of rewards and everytime you pick a chest it pulls 3 rewards from this list in left-to-right order (for example), then it just reveals the reward for the chest you'd choose and the others, this 3 rewards are discarded and new ones generated and added to the bottom of the pile.

              Then you keep drawing stuff and they'll have a record of, for example, how much knights are on the generated list, they could see and say (oh, there are much more knights the previous knights games) and wouldnt be a lie.